The NFL lock for week 3 is the Miami Dolphins (+3). The word lock is not thrown around too often, but that is exactly how strong this game is.
The New York Jets struggled against the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 2, while the Dolphins steam rolled the Oakland Raiders. Despite the loss, the Jets are still (-3) point favorites over the Dolphins, (current line at BetOnline) and this line is purely based on public perception and not the talent on the field. Look for an updated spread on this game at BetOnline, the top-rated sportsbook and get up to $900 in free plays to bet on football!
To prove that point a quick look at the consensus numbers shows that 63 percent of the public is backing the Jets on Sunday. This is mystifying. The Jets had a great game against Buffalo in week 1 and then fell flat against the Steelers. Their passing game seems inconsistent, the running game is nearly invisible, and the defense is banged up.
Reggie Bush will be the focal point of the Dolphins offense. Bush is averaging 6.0 yards per carry and had a 65-yard touchdown in a 26-carry, 172-yard effort last week and broke four tackles against the Raiders. He will get some attention against this Jets defense, but it’s the rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill that will excel.
Tannehill has looked solid thus far on the young season and he is a smart quarterback in a comfortable system. He may be young but he already has a chemistry with several players to include wide reciever Brian Hartline.
The Dolphins defense is unheralded. The Dolphins have held opponents to 2.2 yards per carry this season and have a front that can shut down the Jets offense on the ground. In fact they lead the league in that category.
Through the air they only allow opponents to convert 27.6 percent of third down opportunities and they can compete against the Jets. The Jets should have trouble on offense which will open up and opportunity for the Dolphins to keep this close. DOes this mean Tebow will throw a pass against the Dolphins?
The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC and maybe the most important trend is that the Jets are just 2-8 ATS in the last ten games on the road.
The Dolphins are 22-49-1 ATS in their last 72 home games although they have not fielded a great team in years. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the AFC East and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The Dolphins are better than people think and this is a false line based on people jumping on the Jets bandwagon.
The end result is that the Miami Dolphins (+3) is the NFL lock for week 3. Look for an updated spread on this game at BetOnline, the top-rated sportsbook and get up to $900 in free plays to bet on football!