How to pick winners using 2020 NFL odds for week 1 and consensus picks

Posted on August 19, 2020September 5, 2020 by Max Hammersby

How to pick winners using 2020 NFL odds for week 1 and consensus picks

It is not easy to win money betting on the NFL. It is one of the world’s most popular sports to wager on and last year it was projected that 38 million American adults planned to bet on the NFL a year ago. This number will increase in 2020. Because of this, the point spreads are always monitored closely by the top sportsbooks. If an injury happens, the sports betting sites are one-step ahead of you and will move the line before you can even think of making a wager. The key to picking winners is to start early and look at the 2020 NFL odds for week 1 as soon as they are released and try to find value to place a wager.

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2020 NFL odds for week 1

THURSDAY, SEPT. 10

Houston at Kansas City (-10.5) [BET NOW]

Free pick on Texans vs Chiefs

SUNDAY, SEPT 13, 2020

Miami at New England (-6.5)[BET NOW]

Cleveland at Baltimore (-8.5) [BET NOW]

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-5.5) [BET NOW]

Las Vegas at Carolina (PK) [BET NOW]

Seattle (-1) at Atlanta[BET NOW]

Philadelphia (-6) at Washington [BET NOW]

Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) [BET NOW]

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville [BET NOW]

Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 [BET NOW]

L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati [BET NOW]

Arizona at San Francisco (-8) [BET NOW]

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) [BET NOW]

Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams [BET NOW]

*All the 2020 NFL odds for week 1 are provided by MyBookie, the #1 sportsbook to bet on the NFL.

MONDAY, SEPT. 14, 2020

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants [BET NOW]

Tennessee at Denver (-3) [BET NOW]

*Keep in mind that the [BET NOW] and consensus pick is a good place to start when picking winners in the NFL, but it’s important to look at all the variables before placing a wager.

It’s a whole new year

The biggest mistake football bettors make in the first week of the season is that they bet on last year. Obviously, when a player like Tom Brady leaves the New England Patriots everyone will know about it, especially if you live in Tampa Bay. However, few fans track all the moves that a team makes. Players switching teams on the offensive line or in the defense are rarely tracked unless it is a big name player. This is essential information to have before betting on the NFL.

The point spreads to ponder

When the lines are released, there are a few that stand out. Why they stand out may differ depending on who is looking at it.

Titans vs Broncos

The Broncos are small favorites at home against the Titans. A home favorite on Monday night football is not a surprise, but the Titans made the playoffs last year and the Broncos are still rebuilding. That is just the first of the games that jump off the board when looking at the NFL odds for week one. Before placing a bet, another thing to consider is who the public is betting on.

Raiders vs Panthers

Another point spread that jumps off the page are the Carolina Panthers. This is a team in rebuild mode and they let Cam Newton walk. Although they replaced Newton with Teddy Bridgewater, no one expects a huge year out of this team. Yet the line shows that they are a coin toss (PK) at home against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Consensus picks for week 1

There is one theory that stands the test of time when it comes to sports betting, bet against the public. This is especially true when it comes to betting on the National Football League. For week one, the most popular bets are not surprising.

Packers vs Vikings

The team that is getting the most action at the betting window is the Green Bay Packers on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are much better defensively and although they lost Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, (and he is thriving) they are very good on offense. The public loves to bet on quarterbacks and they love Aaron Rodgers. This is interesting since, in his last four trips to Minnesota, Rodgers has completed only 53.9 percent of his passes with a paltry passer rating of 82.2. His struggles against Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer are legendary. If you really look at this Packers team there is a good chance that they don’t even make the playoffs.

Who is the public betting on in week one?

Another thing that jumps out is that the public loves road teams in the first week of the NFL season. The public is all over Miami (64%), Cleveland (70%), Arizona (78%) and the Las Vegas Raiders (73%).

We have seen the odds and we have seen the consensus picks for the first week of football, but there is more to look at. When both of these angles collide, the point spread will move. This will be the next thing to take note of.

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Watching the smart money moves

“Smart” money defined is money placed on a game from someone that is in the know. This term is used way too freely nowadays. Someone will suggest that smart money is on a game without actually knowing that the money being wagered is from a reliable source. How do they do this? They watch the point spreads.

Colts vs Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as (+6.5) underdogs at home in week one against the Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars are expected to struggle again this season, but the public loves this home underdog in week one. Over 75% of the bets accepted are on the Jaguars +6.5. Since all of the money is on the home team, you would expect the line to go down in favor of Jacksonville. However, the Colts are now as high as (-7) at several of the top rated football sports betting sites.

Why does this happen?

The assumption is that although there are more bets on the Jaguars there is more money on the Colts. Since money moves the line, the sportsbooks are bumping up the Colts. I agree that more money is on the Colts, but I am not ready to call it smart money. Some of the richest guys I know are not the smartest guys that I know.

However, I want to list the plays that meet the “smart money” criteria for the first week of the season.

Colts -7

Ravens -9

Panthers +1

Vikings -3.5

49ers -7.5

Rams +2

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If you are going to bet on the NFL, you have to know how to look at the NFL odds. The best football handicappers already have their winner selected before the odds come out. All they are looking for is a number. If you desire to bet on the NFL and make money, it all starts with just one number.

NBA picks and parlays for Aug 19: Look at the Zig Zag theory

Posted on August 18, 2020August 18, 2020 by Max Hammersby

NBA picks and parlays for Aug 19: Look at the Zig-Zag theory

As we head into the third day of the NBA playoffs, it’s time to look at the Zigzag theory. For those that are unfamiliar it’s a simple handicapping theory. Bet on the team that failed to cover in the first game. The theory is that the public perception from the first game will inflate the line, giving the basketball bettor an opportunity. The problem with the zig-zag theory is that it is strongly based on the home-court advantage and that is something that does not exist in the bubble. But some handicappers may want to consider this theory when making NBA picks and parlays for Aug 19. Let’s start by looking at who the public is betting on.

The pulse of the public

The early betting shows that the public is on every team that won in the first game. The one NBA match up that is getting the most attention is the game between the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz. The Nuggets won the first game in overtime and 77% of the people betting on this game, think they will win again.

Daily NBA Picks

Here are the two best bets for the third day of the NBA playoffs. All point-spreads are taken from our top sportsbooks.

Jazz (+4) [BET NOW]

The final score in the first game is misleading since the game went to overtime. If not for a costly 8-second violation, the game may have ended differently. Donovan Mitchell carried this squad in the opener and he needs help. Expect more of a team effort in game two with players like Royce O’Neale, Georges Niang stepping up. One player to watch on offense is Rudy Gobert who was noticeably absent in game one. Nikola Jokic is beatable on defense and Gibert can exploit this NBA match up. The Nuggets have only covered against the spread (ATS) in 2 of their last eight games after covering. The Jazz not only cover in game two, but they will even up the series with a victory.

Clippers (-6) [BET NOW]

The Mavericks recovered from an early double-digit deficit and they had an opportunity to take down the Clippers but they failed miserably. Many will point to the baffling ejection of Kristaps Porzingis as the turning point, but it’s much deeper than that. Luka Doncic was a bright spot for this team but he is being physically abused every time he goes into the paint. This is going to take a toll on this superstar as he is not getting help from any of the other role players. The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The Clippers are focused on eliminating the Mavericks and they win again.

Daily NBA Parlay

Betting on basketball is not easy and hitting parlays can be extremely difficult. So far we have had success and we have another small parlay for day 3.

Two team parlay:

Raptors / Nets Over 226 [BET NOW]

If game one taught us anything in this series, it’s this. The Nets do not match up well defensively against the Raptors. If the game was closer the Raptors could have easily put up a higher score. After getting an early 32 point lead, they put it in cruise control for the remainder of the blowout. The Raptors will let their guard down in this game. When they did it in game one, the Nets went on a 44-22 run. The over is 15-3 in the last 18 games when they go up against a team with a winning percentage above .600. This game will be closer and go well over this betting total.

Sixers / Celtics under214 [BET NOW]

In a game of runs, the Celtics emerged victorious in the first game. The second game in this series is about to get ugly. The Celtics won the game and shot just 42% from the floor and 32% from 3-point land. Gordon Heyward hurt his ankle and looks like he will miss this game. That will hurt on the offensive side of the floor. Say what you want about the Sixers, but they play defense. We were on the under in game one and we will back it again. Jayson Tatum had a career playoff-high and the first game did not go over. The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and you can expect another low scoring game.

Raptors / Nets Over 226

Sixers / Celtics Under 214

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76ers vs Celtics series predictions: Don’t doubt Philadelphia

Posted on August 13, 2020August 15, 2020 by Max Hammersby

76ers vs Celtics series predictions: Don’t doubt Philadelphia

The NBA match up between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics does not look the same as it did in the past. This was one of the most anticipated matchups of the NBA playoffs before the Sixers were decimated by devastating injuries to some of their best players. Before the injuries, it was difficult to make 76ers vs Celtics series predictions, but now everyone assumes that the Celtics will advance and meet the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals.

Breaking down the 2020 NBA Playoff Bracket predictions for every series and your printable brackets!

Philly is focused on the playoffs

The Celtics faced Philadelphia in the 2018 playoffs and were treated to an easy exit, but there is one player that is putting that in the past. Tobias Harris made it very simple when asked about playing Boston. “My thoughts are, let’s win.” That is easier said than done. They will be without Ben Simmons and that means Harris, Joel Embiid, and former Celtic Al Horford will have to step up.

Everyone’s Betting Boston

The top sportsbooks had to put a high price on Boston to win this series. The sports betting public was high on Boston before the injury to Simmons and that number is just getting higher and higher. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index projects Boston with a 72 percent chance to win the series and a 13 percent chance to sweep with only an 11 percent chance for Philly to win in seven games. That is why the sportsbooks have no choice but to make the Celtics a huge favorite in the series and game one. The Celtics may be better coached and they are much deeper, but there are a few things to be concerned about.

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In this series size matters

With all due respect to Daniel Theis, Robert Williams, and Enes Kanter, the Celtics have a tough time against bigger physical teams. Good coaching and defensive switches help, but they are going to have a tough time stopping Embiid and Horford. The Sixers won three of the four games against the Celtics this season and Embiid put up 38 points in one affair and Horford put up 17 points in another. The troubles against bigger players have continued in the bubble. Other notable outputs against Boston include Jusuf Nurkic (30 points, nine rebounds, five assists), Bam Adebayo (21 points, 12 rebounds), and Nikola Vucevic (26 points, 11 rebounds). If they advance to the NBA Finals, they better hope the matchup is against some of the smaller teams from the West.

Kemba, inconsistency and more reasons to worry

Kemba Walker is still recovering from a knee injury and head coach Brad Stevens has done a masterful job of “hiding” his issues on defense. This rotation turns into a defensive zone so other teams cannot target Kemba and his injury.

The Celtics aren’t hiding Kemba Walker on a particular player today. But they are kind of hiding him on the weakside corner player. They keep rotating and switching him around, so he’s just kind of always-on whoever that player is.

— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) August 11, 2020

On offense against Memphis, the Celtics looked great, but the C’s have had issues against the Sixers. Boston’s rating on offense when playing the Sixers this season was a low 106.9, dropping to 103.1 in the three losses. The Celtics shot only 43.3 percent overall against Philadelphia a number that has to improve if they want to win this series.

76ers vs Celtics series predictions

With all of that being said, I do believe that the Celtics win this series. However, it is naïve to think this series will be a sweep or to think that this will be an easy round for Boston. The Sixers play well on defense and can do well in the paint opening up shooting lanes for other players. The Sixers playing without Simmons and the documented struggles away from home are the only things keeping Philadelphia from winning this series. Boston will win, but it’s going to be close.

76ers vs Celtics series predictions: Celtics in 7 games

Magic vs Bucks: How to bet on this series

Posted on August 13, 2020August 15, 2020 by Max Hammersby

Magic vs Bucks: How to bet on this series

The NBA playoffs are all set and one of the playoff series that is being overlooked is in the Eastern Conference. All the attention is now on the 76ers vs Celtics. But wait. The Milwaukee Bucks claimed the first top spot in the East and they will “host” the Orlando Magic who claimed the No. 8 seed. This series may not be as exciting as the Rockets vs Thunder, but it will be a good NBA match up. When previewing the Magic vs Bucks series, it is easy to be one-sided and favor the Bucks, but you need to dig deeper if you are going to bet on this series.

Breaking down the 2020 NBA Playoff Bracket predictions for every series and your printable brackets!

Avoid number inflation

According to the top sportsbooks the Bucks are heavy favorites to win this series. With the best player in basketball in Giannis Antetokounmpo, they are also the favorites to win the East at (-160). Many sports betting sites are posting odds that lean to the Bucks sweeping the Magic out of the playoffs in the best-of-7-series. If you plan to bet on Milwaukee, it is best to get on this team now. The basketball betting line is only going to increase leading up to tip-off.

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Magic vs Bucks medical report

Magic coach Steve Clifford is underrated. He gets the most out of his team and they secured a playoff berth for the second straight season. They have the ability to be a tough underdog, but that will change when you look at the injuries. Injuries to Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Carter-Williams make things difficult for this team when they go up against Milwaukee. Isaac suffering a torn ACL means he will be gone for a long time. The Magic held players out to get healthy for the playoffs, so monitor the injuries before betting on this series.

Playoffs are different

When betting on this series try not to get caught up in the outcome of the regular season. The Magic went winless (-0-4) against the Bucks and they were crushed. The Bucks’ average margin of victory in those four meetings was 17 points (113.8-96.8). There is also a coaching mismatch. Milwaukee has won six of the seven meetings between the teams since Mike Budenholzer took over as Bucks’ head coach. This will drive the public to push up point spreads in this series and the Magic may be worth a bet early in this series.

When betting on this series, take caution. The Bucks will win this series, but laying double-digits on every game will only lead to trouble. Bet smart and good luck!

Magic vs Bucks pick: Bucks in 5

Why the Green Bay Packers will miss the playoffs

Posted on August 3, 2020August 10, 2020 by Max Hammersby

Why the Green Bay Packers will miss the playoffs

The Green Bay Packers have one of the most successful football franchises in history. They have a historic football field, passionate fans, and numerous super bowl trophies. Outside of the Dallas Cowboys, they may be the most popular team in the NFL, if not the world. Everyone believes the Packers will once again compete for a championship, but think again. There are several reasons why it is unfortunate that the Green Bay Packers will miss the playoffs this year. Now is when you should bet on it.

Problems at home

Aaron Rodgers is not happy. This is not a discovery as Rodgers has been unhappy for years. He is under a red-hot spotlight however after the Packers drafted his replacement. When Jordan Love was drafted, it led Rodgers to drink. Although Rodgers has since dismissed the issue, it will hang over his head all year long. This will make things very difficult for Rodgers and the coaching staff, especially if they lose early in the season.

The best division in football

The Packers used to own the NFC North. The Packers are still the favorites to win this year. Every year they were the odds-on favorite to win the division. Not anymore. Every team in the division has improved. The Minnesota Vikings are still the best team in the division with a dominating defense. The Chicago Bears acquired another quarterback and they will once again be in contention. The Detroit Lions are everyone’s favorite pick to surprise this year. All of this spells bad news for the Packers.

So why will the Green Bay Packers miss the playoffs?

Everyone loves the Green Bay offense but last year they were out-gained by 114 yards. IT may not seem like much, but that is a lot for a playoff team. This is also a sign that this team is not ready defensively. This puts all of the pressure on Rodgers. The 35-year-old QB is a Hall-of-Famer, but he will have some serious issues trying to carry this team on his shoulders. The weak defense, difficult division, and aging QB are just one of the reasons why the Packers will not play in the postseason.

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