NFL Week 11 picks against the spread for every game

NFL Week 11 picks against the spread for every game

The NFL odds are out and a Thursday night winner is already in the books, but there is more work to do. Quarterback changes, injuries to key players, and marquee matchups are sprinkled about the schedule for this week. This page will be updated multiple times throughout the day as we post the latest information for the upcoming games. (or click here and get free picks for every game this week in the NFL)

If you are going to bet on the NFL and win, you have to do your research. That is why we provide NFL Week 11 picks against the spread for every game. But first, celebrate the holidays with this list of big bonuses for betting on the NFL this week.

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Cardinals vs Seahawks

This primetime game featured two teams with aspirations for a divisional crown, but it was Seattle who left with a W. our betting breakdown shows how the public focuses too much on the last game and why the Seahawks was the only play to make.  Read more here…

Eagles vs Browns

The Cleveland Browns are having a good year, but you may not know it with the scrutiny that this team is under. They go up against the lifeless Eagles and they will have to do it without their best defensive player.

Myles Garrett was placed on the COVID-19 reserve list and this is a big missing piece for the Browns. They have other injuries to be concerned with to include RG Wyatt Teller (calf) and LB Mack Wilson (hip) that will be game-changing decisions for this game.

The Eagles have had a tough season and Carson Wentz is one of the most-sacked QB’s in the league, but this team is getting healthy. They have a healthy Miles Sanders in the lineup and welcome back Alshon Jeffery who provides a veteran presence and another target for defenses to prepare for. The Browns offense is not clicking and they are 8-21 against the spread (ATS) in their last 29 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. They may be winning but they are not covering as they are 0-4 ATS in the last four games overall.

The Eagles coaching staff is focusing on this game as an opportunity to turn this season around. Expect a focused Eagles team that will get the early lead and never look back.

Eagles +3

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Steelers vs Jaguars

The Pittsburgh Steelers are on the way to an undefeated season, but they have plenty of landmines along the way. This includes a game this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. With a Thanksgiving showdown with the Ravens, it may be easy for Pittsburgh to look past the lowly Jags.

Rookie QB Jake Luton will get his third start of the season, but he has never faced a pass rush like this one before. In previous games, he has faced lackluster pressure, but now he faces the best in the NFL. The Steelers will put pressure on the young signal-caller which will lead to mistakes that Pittsburgh can take advantage of.

The Steelers are 5-0 ATS against the AFC and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. HC Mike Tomlin is one fo the best in the business and he will get his team ready for this “trap” game. After coming from behind to beat the Cowboys, the Steelers are sick of hearing that they can’t beat bad teams. They come into this game focused and they blow the doors off Jacksonville.

Steelers -10

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Falcons vs Saints

This rivalry does not get enough credit. These two teams really get after it, regardless of the record and that will not change this week. The Saints have made a QB change and the Falcons will have Calvin Ridley back in the lineup. Don’t forget to watch the injury report as other star players may miss this game. Get the betting preview and pick against the spread here. Read more here…

 

Bengals vs Washington Football Team

When did the Bengals become good enough to be a small road underdog? Joe Burrow is looking like an All-Pro QB and they are impressive in certain facets of the game but are they that good? Running back Joe Mixon is already out for this game and the team is dealing with COVID-19 positive tests, that could sideline more players and coaches. This is a big problem. And you are still thinking about betting on the Bengals on the road? Think again.

Washington is not the best team in the league, but they have an incredible coaching staff. They have a QB in Alex Smith that is a true leader. This team will be able to exploit a very beatable Bengals defense. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record and they will not keep this game close.

Washington opens up the offense this week and will get pressure on Burrow. Chase Young and a very talented front line on defense will have a field day. They cover the small number and they are one of the best bets this week in the NFL.

Washington -1.5

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Lions vs Panthers

We get it. Everyone wants a pick on every game, but this is a game to avoid in Week 11.

For the Lions, Stafford is hurt and Golladay and Swift are out. In Carolina, CMAC is out and Teddy Bridgewater is bruised and beaten. Putting money on a game with this many injuries is recipe for disaster. The spread in this game is slightly in favor of the home team and the sharps are staying away from this game. If you are looking for an angle, the Lions defense against the run is bad. They allow 141.6 yards per game on the ground and the Panthers will be able to establish the run if they have a passing game to support it.

I do not suggest betting on this game, but since the article clearly says picks for every game, here it is. The Lions are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and will be without the players they need to win. So, what the hell, bet the Panthers.

Panthers -1 

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Titans vs Ravens

People are starting to doubt the Baltimore Ravens and that is a big mistake. After losing to Pittsburgh and getting upset against the Patriots, the public is bailing on Jim Harbaugh and his Ravens. So much so that 64 percent of the wagers in this game are on the visiting Titans. And did we forget to mention the revenge angle?

 

The Titans offensive is explosive led by running back Derrick Henry, but the concern is on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans defense needs some help. They have allowed opponents to convert 53.2% of fourth downs, which ranks 31st in the NFL. They also are a disaster in the red-zone allowing touchdowns on over 74 percent of the time. The Titans rank among the worst in the NFL in third-down defense, and that means the defense folds on the most important plays of the game. To make matters worse, the Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Ravens are Ravens are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against the AFC. This is a focused football team ready to show the NFL world they are still dangerous.

Ravens -6

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Patriots vs Texans

Anyone else surprised by the spread in this game? The Patriots just upset the Ravens and although they are on the road, they play a struggling franchise in the Houston Texans. The Patriots actually were underdogs when the odds were put on the board. But after the public came to their senses the Patriots are now 2 point favorites against the Texans. But is it the right bet to make?

Houston QB DeShaun Watson is the X-factor. He has completed 205 of his 301 pass attempts so far this season for 2,539 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. In the past, he has piled up yards against better Patriots defenses. The Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up win. The home team is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

The lesson here is simple. If it looks too good to be true, it is. Bet the Texans.

Texans +2

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Packers vs Colts

This may be the game of the day as two contenders with high profile stars clash. It was the Packers that started out as favorites according to the top-rated sportsbooks. The public piled on Green Bay with over 60 percent of the wagering, but somehow the spread has switched favorites and it is now the Colts that are small favorites. Is this an indication of smart money coming in on Indianapolis? We answer all of the questions in our full betting preview. Read more here…

Jets vs Chargers

The winless New York Jets travel to the West Coast to go up against the LA Chargers. Rookie Justin Herbert is making a name for himself as a young gun-slinger this week and he’s the tag of double-digit favorite this week. The Bolts are currently -10 vs the Jets, which is too much according to the public betting. Over 60% of the bets being placed believe that the Jets can keep this game close.

Herbert has thrown for 2,333 yards while completing 66.8% of his passes, with 19 touchdowns, and averaging 25 points per game. He will face a Jets defense that ranks 29th against the pass. The Jets are 17-37-4 ATS in their last 58 games as a road underdog and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. you always have to worry about the Chargers blowing a big lead, but not this time.

Chargers -8.5

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Dolphins vs Broncos

The Miami Dolphins are the hot team right now and Tua is the rookie QB that everyone loves to watch. So it only makes sense that nearly 60% of the bets are coming in on the Fins. However, the Broncos got some good news as Drew Lock will be able to play QB this week.

The Broncos are not a fierce opponent, but this lull in the schedule may be a “trap” spot for the Dolphins. The first game in the Mile-High air for Tua and the Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss. Broncos HC Vic Fangio knows how to confuse a young QB and he is very familiar with Brian Flores. This is the one game that no one is talking about which of course means that this is the one that may provide the biggest upset of the week.

Broncos +3.5 AND the money line

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Sunday Night Football

Chiefs vs Raiders

If you are not excited about Sunday night football this week, you are not a fan. The Kansas City Chiefs come in off a bye week and they are looking to avenge the only loss against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders took a victory lap after the win and the Chiefs have taken notice. In the biggest Sunday night game of the year, all eyes will be watching and wagering on this game. That is why we had to break it down and give out a winner. Read more here…

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Monday Night Football: Rams vs Buccaneers

It doesn’t get any better than this. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers facing off against Aaron Donald and the Rams. This is must-see TV and if you are going to place a bet on this game (and you know you are) then you have to know all of the numbers. We have the numbers that you need to know for this Monday Night Matchup. Read more here…

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