2023 NBA playoff picks against the spread
The 2023 NBA playoffs are ready to go! Our NBA betting headquarters is a one-stop shop for your basketball betting needs. From odds, trends bonuses, and explaining the Zig Zag theory, it’s got everything you need! Of course, it includes 2023 NBA playoff picks against the spread. This page will constantly update with the latest betting picks for the playoffs.
NBA Playoff Picks: Sunday, May 29th
Heat vs Celtics Game 7 Pick and Predictions
The Eastern Conference finals come down to one game. The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics meet up on Memorial Day with everything on the line. The Heat owned a 3-0 lead, but they squandered that lead and now the Celtics have a chance to make history. Teams that were up 3-0 in an NBA playoff matchup were 150-0 and the Heat will look to avoid being the one team to lose that lead. Before you make your Heat vs Celtics Game 7 Pick, do your homework.
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Heat vs Celtics Game 7 Line
After an incredible come-from-behind win, the Celtics opened up as -9 point favorites for Game 7. That line has now dipped to -7 as Jimmy Butler and the Heat are getting some attention from the betting public. This makes sense because the Heat is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the last 7 road games. But will Miami win?
Betting on Boston
The Celtics have had an incredible comeback and an unbelievable Game 6 win to get to this point. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart have led this team, but key plays by role players have ultimately brought Boston back from the brink of elimination. The Celtics only get 29 percent of the public betting action headed into this game.
Heat vs Celtics Game 7 Pick and Predictions
Jimmy Butler is going to have a big game and the Heat have the better coach. Tatum and the Celtics have had too many lapses on defense to believe that they can cover 7 points in an elimination game. The Heat are an impressive 15-6 ATS in Boston and they will not be intimidated by the atmosphere. This game goes down to the wire and the Celtics win, but they don’t cover the spread.
Heat +7.5 [BET NOW]
NBA Playoff Picks: Sunday, May 21st
Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Pick and Predictions
The Boston Celtics are in a must-win spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. That pressure situation usually comes in Game 6 or Game 7, but for Boston, it is here early. The Miami Heat has dominated this series and holds a demanding lead with two impressive wins in Boston. The Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Pick and Predictions may just be the toughest to make with so much on the line.
The Heat is on
Jimmy Butler is playing great basketball. The Heat have won all five playoff games in Miami and Butler and the Heat seem unstoppable. Bam Adebayo is feeding off the energy from Butler and producing in a very big way. The bench of the Heat is responding as well and currently, this looks like a mismatch, yet the Celtics are still small favorites in this game.
Where are the Celtics Superstars?
Jayson Tatum has yet to make a shot in the 4th quarter in this series. Combined with Jaylen Brown both stars are 4 of 17 from the 3-point range. This may be due to cold shooting or great defense from Miami, but if the Celtics want to make this a series something has to change now.
Celtics vs Heat Game 3 Pick and Predictions
The Celtics are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last five games in Miami. So they know how to win and cover in South Beach. Boston is also 7-2 ATS after a loss and 4-1 ATS in the last five road games. The Celtics are too good to get swept out of this series.
Bet on Boston -3
NBA Playoff Picks: Thursday, May 18th
Western Conference Finals: Game 2 Lakers vs Nuggets
The LA Lakers are serious contenders to win the championship. LeBron James is looking to add to his legacy, but after Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, things look bleak. The Denver Nuggets jumped out to a quick start and although they let the Lakers come back, they won the pivotal first game of the series. Game 2 Lakers vs Nuggets predictions and picks have to be evaluated differently.
Adjustments are everything
Our series predictions indicate that the Nuggets will win the series, but the adjustments are everything. The Lakers made the adjustments that they needed to make in the second half to make this series close. Game 2 will feature a desperate Lakers team that is looking to steal home court and head back to LA with a tied series.
Game 2 Lakers vs Nuggets Predictions
The zig-zag theory will suggest that the Lakers are the play in Game 2. The line dipped about a point because everyone believes that the Nuggets will outrun the Lakers again. That is a big mistake. Anthony Davis can put up big numbers against this defense. The Lakers are 16-5 against the spread (ATS) after a loss and will be ready for Game 2. Bet on LeBron to get the job done.
Game 2 Lakers vs Nuggets Pick: Lakers +5.5
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NBA Playoff Picks: Sunday, May 14th
76ers vs Celtics Game 7 Picks and Predictions
There is nothing better in the NBA playoffs than a Game 7. That is what we get today when the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers face off in an elimination game in Boston. The winner will face the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The 76ers vs Celtics Game 7 picks and predictions cover all angles for the biggest game of the day.
Doubting Doc
Doc Rivers is miserable in Game 7’s. He has nine losses in Game 7’s and that is the most for any coach in all major sports. The numbers are overwhelming as he never wins in the most crucial games. However, he is facing a first-year coach in Joe Mazzulla. Mazzulla has struggled at times in this series and that is allowing for close games. With that being said, it may be a bit surprising that the Celtics are -6.5 favorites in this closeout game.
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76ers vs Celtics Game 7 picks and predictions
Las Vegas knows what they are doing. The Celtics are the odds-on favorite to win the NBA title, but 65% of the bets in this game are on Philadelphia. The 76ers are in trouble. They are not deep enough and they need their role players to step up in what will be a difficult atmosphere. The Sixers are just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings which does not bode well for today.
The Celtics are 9-4 ATS at home, 10-3 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games overall. This game will start off close but the Celtics will pull away late for a big victory at home.
Game 7 Pick: Celtics -6.5
NBA Playoff Picks: Tuesday, May 9th
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
The Celtics are headed back to Boston, but they have big problems. Jaylen Brown is clearly not happy and Boston is inconsistent and disorganized. The team is run by the players and the coach is in over his head. This team is full of talent, but not players that are willing to play like a team.
The Sixers are not perfect, but they have tied the series at two games apiece and their best player has yet to have a monster game. That will change on Tuesday night. Joel Embiid was embarrassed in the last outing to the point where teammate PJ Tucker had to yell at him. Embiid will use that as motivation and will explode in game three. This will collapse the defense and allow for outside shooting for James Harden.
The Sixers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last ten games overall and they will beat the Celtics in a crucial game five.
Sixers +7.5
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Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns
Unfortunately, the series between the Phoenix Suns and the Denver Nuggets is being derailed by controversy. If you look past all of the noise off the court, you will see a great series between two teams. Although the series is tied, the Nuggets are finally getting the respect that they deserve. But don’t count out the Suns just yet.
Devin Booker is playing the best basketball (outside of Jimmy Butler) in the NBA playoffs. Booker and Durant form a dynamic duo, but 62 percent of the bets in this game are coming in on Denver, due to the outcome of the first two games.
Adjustments are everything and the Suns will make this a game. The Nuggets are distracted by the incidents off the court and they are a disgusting 5-11 ATS with just one day to rest in between games. I fully expect the Nuggets to come out energized at home, but the Suns will keep this game close and pull off the upset in the Mile High City.
Suns +5
NBA Playoff Picks: Sunday, May 7th
Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are done. They are not getting enough effort from their superstars to get the job done. They don’t have the depth, they don’t have the talent and they don’t have the heart. Doc Rivers cannot motivate James Harden and Joel Embiid is not healthy. That is not good news for Philly.
The Boston Celtics do have a habit of laying down in games when they have the lead, but it will not happen in this game. Malcolm Brogdon and the Celtics perimeter defense is playing tough, limiting opportunities for the Sixers.
The Celtics are 5-1 ATS on the road, 9-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 10-3 ATS overall. The Sixers are 1-7 ATS against the Celtics and this series is over.
Celtics -2.5
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Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns won at home in the last meeting against the Denver Nuggets and made this series interesting. However, the Nuggets may be the most underrated team in the playoffs. They are much better than the Suns and they will show in game 3 why they should not be overlooked.
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker combined for 86 points in the last win. This is a number that is impossible to sustain. This is also an indication that they need help from the rest of the team and this is not happening anytime soon. No other player on the team scored more than seven points.
The Suns are 1-5 ATS after a win and 1-5 ATS in the last six games against the Nuggets. Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games after a loss and they respond with a big win today.
Nuggets +2.5
NBA Playoff Picks: Thursday, May 4th
LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors Game 2 Predictions
The LA Lakers are in a grove. LeBron James and Anthony Davis almost made it look easy with a game 1 victory. The Golden State Warriors stumbled at home and now face a pivotal game 2. Steph Curry and the Warriors are an impressive home team, but they need to change things up if they hope to even up the series.
Defense…Defense
The Warriors are not a team that is known for defense, but that has to change if they want to win game 2. Draymond Green and Kevon Looney had no answer for Anthony Davis. He dominated all night and Steve Kerr will have to find a way to slow him down if they want to win this game and stay in the series.
Defense…Defense…Part 2
The Lakers showed up on the defensive end of the floor. They held the Warriors to just 40.6 percent shooting and every shot was difficult. The Warriors are invisible in the paint which puts all of the pressure on the snipers from beyond the arc. Although the Warriors shot very well from deep, this puts tremendous pressure on the shooters.
LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors Game 2 Predictions
This matchup actually favors the Lakers, which is why they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in the next game after scoring more than 100 points in the previous game and they are at a serious disadvantage. Take the points, the Lakers need to put the pressure on Steph so they can win a short series.
Lakers vs Warriors Game 2 Pick: Lakers +5.5
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NBA Playoff Picks: Wednesday, May 3rd
Philadelphia Sixers vs Boston Celtics Game 2 Predictions
The Boston Celtics were heavy favorites to beat Philly and advance. After the Joel Embiid injury, it seemed like an easy bet that the Celtics would dominate and advance. James Harden had other plans. Harden and the Sixers upset the Celtics in game 1 and now the series is wide open heading in the second game of the series.
No Embiid, No problem
The current point spread and the injury report suggests that Embiid is doubtful for game two. Philadelphia does not want to rush Embiid back and after stealing back the home-court advantage, they don’t have to.
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The Celtic’s problem is coaching
The Celtics have been outcoached in every series. The start power of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum keeps them in games, but the mistakes on defense are ugly. They did not have an answer for Harden in game one and they had time to make adjustments. Mark my words. When and if the Celtics are eliminated coaching will be an issue and this team will never be the same again.
Philadelphia Sixers vs Boston Celtics Game 2 Predictions
The Celtics need this game. That is why the point spread jumped two points from the opening line. The problem is that the Celtics are not 11 points better than the Sixers. Philly is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven games overall and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five road games. The Celtics will win, but they won’t cover.
Sixers vs Celtics Game 2 Pick: Sixers +10.5
NBA Playoff Picks: Tuesday, May 2nd
Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Game 2
The Miami Heat are for real and they made it very clear in game one against the Knicks. But injuries continue to be a concern. Jimmy Butler has been the best player in the NBA playoffs, but he rolled his ankle at the end of game one. His availability is a big reason why the Knicks are (-7) point favorites in this game. Just like in the Celtics vs Sixers series, the line tells a story.
With a point spread that large it is clear that the sportsbooks believe that Butler will not play or be effective. The Knicks are due for a correction after the team shot a measly 20.6 percent from beyond the arc. Jalen Brunson was 0-7 and that will change for this must-win game.
The Knicks are a good home team posting a 10-4-1 ATS record at home. New York has covered four of the last five games overall and they will completely dominate a Heat team that is happy to split in New York.
Game 2 pick against the spread: Knicks -7
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LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
This series will be billed as Steph Curry vs LeBron James, but it is much more than that. Curry and LeBron are the stars but this series may ultimately decide the fate of each team for the foreseeable future. Both teams can win the championship and both teams may face an offseason that will change the face of the franchise forever. Who survives and who faces an offseason of uncertainty? We have your answers.
The Warriors are off a grueling seven-game series and will have a quick turnaround for this series. The Lakers are starting to come together at the right time but hit the road to play in a very intimidating atmosphere.
But LeBron and the Lakers are rested and ready to go. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS after a win in which they covered the spread and the Lakers have covered 5 of the last seven meetings. The Lakers win game 1 and the series in six games.
Series Bet: Lakers in six games
Game 1 pick against the spread: Lakers +4.5
NBA Playoff Picks: Monday, May 1st
Monday starts a new month in the NBA playoffs and the matchups are only going to get better.
Philadelphia Sixers vs Boston Celtics
This is expected to be a tightly contested series, but when the spread game out for the first game, it is clear that Joel Embiid will not be playing. He may be available during the series, but this will give the Celtics an early advantage.
Boston is not a kind place to Philly. They are 4-10 ATS in Boston and 0-5 ATS in the last five games overall. You can expect other players on the Sixers to step up without Embiid, but they will be overmatched in every area of this game. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in the last ten and they start this series with a blowout against the Sixers.
Game 1 pick: Boston -9.5
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Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets dominated the first game of this series. They cruised to an easy victory at home and if they can win again, it would be the aging Suns in a big hole headed back to Phoenix.
Jamal Murray is the x-factor for Denver. If he has a good game, it will be very difficult for the Suns to win. However, the Suns are well coached and they have veterans who know how to adjust. The Suns will not overreact to the game 1 loss and they will be ready for game 2. The high altitude will get some hype in the headlines, but the Suns are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in Denver. The zig-zag theory is in play as the Suns keep game 2 close.
Game 2 Pick: Suns +4.5
NBA Playoff Picks: Sunday April 30th
Sunday in the NBA playoffs provides a great schedule with a new series starting and another one ending with a Game 7.
Miami Heat vs New York Knicks
Jimmy Butler and the Heat made short work of the Milwaukee Bucks’ Riding high off the upset, the head to Madison Square Garden in hopes of continuing their winning ways. However, the Knicks are quietly playing some very good basketball.
Knicks All-Star F Julius Randle (ankle sprain) is expected to be out for Game 1 vs. Miami today, sources tell ESPN.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) April 30, 2023
The Knicks are a bit hobbled with the injury to Julius Randle, but Jalen Brunson is proving to be the superstar that the Knicks need.
The Heat are 9-28-1 ATS after covering their spread in the last game and the Knicks are 10-4-1 ATS at home. The Knicks win game 1 and defeat a banged up and tired Miami team.
Game 1 Pick against the spread: Knicks -5
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Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings
We have a bet on the Kings to win the series in seven games, which will make this a hedge play on the Warriors. However, if you consider this game as a standalone, the Kings have the edge. They have an incredible home court advantage and they are not bothered by the pressure. This was very clear in the game six win on the road.
Malik Monk and the rest of the Kings sharp shooting team were lighting up the scoreboard in game six and that will continue with the friendly rim at home. The Warriors may have the experience but they have proved that they cannot win on the road this year. The Warriors are 16-36-1 ATS on the road and 7-17 in the last 24 games against the Kings.
Game 7 Pick against the spread: Kings -1
NBA Playoffs Picks: Friday, Apr 28
The Friday night NBA schedule features two games, but with the series on the line they are as important as ever.
Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors
The Kings put up a valiant effort against the defending champions, but they have faltered of late. The Warriors seem to have hit their stride and the Kings now have the inevitable task of trying to extend the series by winning on the road. To make matters worse, the Warriors are one of the best home teams in the league.
But the Kings are due for a big night from behind the arc. They shot just 2-for-22 from behind the arc, a number that will improve in this crucial game. The Kings will have to play better on the boards if they hope to extend this series. The Kings are 35-17-1 ATS on the road this year and the points are too big to pass up for an elimination game.
Kings +7.5
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Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Lakers
This series is very interesting. On any given night, either team looks as though they are the dominant team. On one night LeBron James puts up a monstrous night, yet in another game, he looks sluggish and old. What version of LeBron and the Lakers team will we see in game 6?
This will be a LeBron James game for the ages. After one of the best games of his career, he fell flat and now the pressure is on the Lakers to close out this series. That is when James is at his best. The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS after a win and 1-5 ATS on the road. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS after a loss and they win and cover in a crucial Game 6.
Lakers – 5
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NBA Playoffs Picks: Thursday, Apr 27
Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks game 6 pick against the spread
This is the time of the year when all games matter. On Thursday night the NBA playoff schedule is focusing on one series. That is the series between the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks. Many experts believed that the Celtics would make short work of Atlanta, but that all changed when Atlanta won a crucial game in Boston.
That win made this incredible trend appear via several news outlets. Over the last 25 NBA postseasons, teams facing elimination that were down 13 points in the final six minutes of regulation were 0-183. Wow!
Celtics vs Hawks Game 6 Odds [BET NOW]
The Celtics are -6.5 favorites in game 6. This spread is not surprising and the public believes that the Celtics will still win this game and cover. Over 60 percent of the betting action is on the Celtics to wrap up this series and beat the Hawks by at least seven points. However, the Hawks have an edge that is overlooked by many.
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Celtics vs Hawks Notes to Know
The Hawks have the better (and more experienced) coach. There were several moves late in the last game that made all of the difference. It is also worth noting that several star players on the Celtics including Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown wilted down the stretch, which may be a sign of bigger problems for this team. But for now, that will linger in the locker room and light a fire under a Boston team that has gotten lazy. A team that needs to respond and they need to respond now.
Celtics vs Hawks game 6 predictions
The Celtics have to close out games better if they want to win and they are still 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games overall. This includes an 8-2 ATS mark in Atlanta and a 4-0 ATS after a loss. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 20-44 ATS after a win and 2-5 ATS at home in the last seven games. The Hawks keep this game close early before fading and losing by double-digits.
Bet on: Celtics -6.5
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NBA Playoffs Picks: Wednesday, Apr 26
New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
The New York Knicks are coming together as a team at the right time. They have excelled in the playoffs and they are playing their best basketball of the season. However, this series is not over yet. This is one of those games that test the mindset of a team. Cleveland may not win this series, but they will win this game. The Cavs are 20-8-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record and they will go all out to win this game. Everything is pointing to an easy Knicks win and that is when it is time to shift gears and bet the home team.
Game 5 Pick: Cavs -5.5
LA Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies
The Lakers are riding a high after a big win at home in overtime and they have a chance to close out the series against the Memphis Grizzlies, but it won’t be easy. The Grizzlies still have a ton of talent and they will be at home for this crucial game. But mentally they are worn down. The Grizzlies had multiple chances to take control of this series and they failed every time. LeBron James made a point of saying that the closeout game is the most important game and the Lakers will be ready for this game. The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in the last five games and they cannot be trusted. The season is over for Memphis and the Lakers will advance.
Game 5 Pick: Lakers +4
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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis returned for the Bucks, but Jimmy Butler is clearly the star of this series. The Heat have the Bucks on the ropes and will look to close out the series when these two teams meet on Wednesday night. But the Bucks will be at home and clearly Las Vegas believes the Bucks have the upper hand since they are listed as (-11) point favorites. That line looks too good to be true and Heat backers are running to the window to bet Miami. But the Heat is 16-33-2 ATS after a win and 2-5 ATS in the last seven games in Milwaukee. Look for a focused Bucks team to win this game in a big way, easily covering the spread and extending the series.
Game 5 Pick: Bucks -11
Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings
This is the best series of the first round of the NBA playoffs. And it is very interesting to see that the Warriors are small favorites on the road in game five of this series. The Kings are a very good team but an injury to superstar De’Aaron Fox will make things difficult for the home town team. Fox has already said that he is going to play in this game, which shows just how important it is for the Kings. We all know, but it deserves repeating the Warriors are a different team on the road. Golden State is 15-36-1 ATS on the road and the Kings are 10-3 ATS after a loss. The Kings win and this series keeps getting better.
Game 5 Pick: Kings +1.5
NBA Playoffs: Tuesday, Apr. 25
With three games on the NBA schedule for Tuesday night, many of the first-round series may be coming to an end.
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics
The Hawks had a slim chance, but that disappeared with an ugly home loss in the last game. Now the Hawks travel to Boston and they have no chance left in this series. The Celtics own Atlanta and although double-digits may seem a lot to cover, it’s the only play in this game. The Hawks are 1-8 ATS in the last nine games against a team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in the last six in Boston. It’s over for Atlanta.
Game 5 pick: Celtics -12
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
The Minnesota Timberwolves were left for dead in this series, but they stayed alive with an impressive overtime win at home. But now they head to the Mile High City to try and stay alive in this series. The Timberwolves are a young team that can ride the momentum from a big win. They are also 24-9 ATS in Denver. This is an inflated line because of the earlier results in this series, but the Wolves are not done yet. They will make this a series.
Game 5 Pick: Timberwolves +9
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LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns
The LA Clippers are giving it their best effort, but they are undermanned. With injuries to key players, the Clippers are in big trouble. Phoenix is in a position to close out this series and they do not want to waste any time. With the starters playing extended minutes, the team needs to get rest. The Clippers are 5-23 ATS in the last 28 games playing on two days’ rest and will be out of gas. Phoenix will be focused and ready to go, winning this game with ease.
Game 5 pick: Suns -12
NBA Playoffs: Monday, Apr. 24
It’s the start of a new work week and because of that, the schedule in the NBA playoffs is a big light for tonight. But there are still two very good games on tap.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat
The big news in this game will be whether or not Giannis can play for Milwaukee. The Bucks have not had their best player for most of this series, but this is a crucial game. The Miami Heat has had their share of injuries that have ravaged the starting lineup and can put serious pressure on Milwaukee with a win in game four. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 on the road and 0-5 ATS in South Beach. With or without Giannis, the Bucks are in trouble.
Game 4 pick: Miami +5.5
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Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Lakers
The Memphis Grizzlies are the No. 2 seed, but the more this series develops, the more it seems as if LA is the better team. In game three the Lakers put the clamps down defensively early and never looked back with a dominating performance. Ja Morant put up plenty of points but the Lakers were in coast mode since they knew that they had the easy win. This is a big game for the Grizzlies, but a spot that they struggle in. Memphis is just 7-21 ATS on the road against a winning team. An indication they shrink in big road games. The Lakers have covered 6 of the last 8 games against Memphis and they win and cover again.
Game 4 Pick: Lakers -4.5
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NBA Playoff Picks: April 23, 2323
Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks
The series between the Knicks and the Cavs is a very entertaining series and is expected to go back and forth. That is exactly what will happen today. In the last meeting, the Cav’s 79 points matched the lowest output of any team this season in the NBA. Donovan Mitchell will not be shut down for two games in a row. This small point spread makes the Knicks look like the best bet, but beware. The Cavs are 13-6-1 ATS following a loss against the spread and they win on Sunday.
Game 4 Pick: Cavs +2.5
Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are a much different team at home. That was clear in game three when the Warriors beat the Kings. The Kings were not as physical in the loss and will return to that form today for game 4. Draymond Green will be back in the lineup, which will hurt a Warriors team who is starting to get better output from the younger players. The Kings have covered 11 of the last 14 games and they keep this game close.
Game 4 pick: Kings +7.5
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Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks
At one point the Celtics looked like they were going to make quick work of the Atlanta Hawks, but after a loss in game 3, the series is now wide open. The Hawks played a flawless game to beat the Celtics, something that will be hard to duplicate against a tough Boston defensive squad. Trae Young is not consistent enough to keep the Hawks in this series. The Celtics are 11-0 ATS after allowing more than 125 points and they want to end this series as soon as possible.
Game 4 pick: Celtics -6
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been dominated in the series against the Denver Nuggets. The Wolves will try once again to stay alive with the last game of the Sunday night schedule. Everything you read suggests that Denver will crush Minnesota. They have been dominated in every facet of the game. On Sunday, Denver is expected to win this game and only has to cover four points. If it looks too good to be true it usually is.
Game 4 pick: T-Wolves +4
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Sixers vs Nets
The Nets made it close in game three before a fourth-quarter collapse that doomed the team and may have ended the series. Joel Embiid is out, but it won’t matter. I have the Sixers in a five-game series future which makes this a hedge spot for me. I am going to back the Sixers, if they win tonight, I get the game bet but lose the future, but if I lose the Sixers can wrap it up in five like I predicted. Not a complete hedge, but does help with risk mitigation. The Sixers are 4-0 -1 1 ATS in the last five overall.
Game 4 pick: Sixers -2
Suns vs Clippers
The Clippers played it close although they were missing two of their best players, but they could not get the victory. They will not have Leonard again, but using the small lineup against the Suns seemed to ignite this team. The Suns are 2-6 ATS in the last eight road games and they are dealing with injuries. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in the last six games after a loss and they upset the Suns to even up the series.
Game 4 Pick: Clippers +7.5
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Bucks vs Heat
The Milwaukee vs Miami series has lost some luster with superstars missing the games. Without Giannis in the lineup, seven other players managed to score double figures and they shot over 50 percent from 3-point range. Miami is much better than that defensively and will play a tighter game at home. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in the last five road games and 0-4 ATS in Miami. Jimmy Butler takes over this game and Miami will keep it close.
Game 3 Pick: Miami +5.5
Grizzlies vs Lakers
Playing at home makes all the difference in the world. Not to mention that the Grizzlies trash talking will motivate “old” LeBron to put on a clinic in this game. It will not matter if Ja Morant can play, the Lakers are the only play to make in this game. The Grizzlies are 1-7-1 ATS following a win against the spread and 0-5 ATS after a win. The Lakers are 7-2 ATS after a loss and LeBron may put up 50 on Saturday night. The Lakers win by double digits.
Game 3 Pick: Lakers -5.5
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Day 6 Round 1
The lines are getting tighter in the NBA playoffs and if you are going to bet on the games you have to get the point spreads that you think will pay off.
Celtics vs Hawks
The Hawks are not going to advance in this series, but playing at home should give them an extra boost. But the Celtics proved in the last game that they are the deeper team. The Celtics have covered 6 games straight and although this game is in Atlanta the Celtics will prevail. The Celtics are in playoff mode and it is clear that the Hawks are a disorganized team playing out the string.
Game 3 Pick: Celtics -5
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Cavs vs Knicks
The Knicks are at home and at MSG with all of the celebrities that come with this big kind of show. But the Knicks are not that good. But can we just admit that the Cavs are the better team? The Cavs dominated in game two and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. This game will get chippy, but in the end, the Cavs win in MSG.
Game 3 Pick: Cavs +3.5
Nuggets vs Timberwolves
The Nuggets have been dominating this series, but the change of venue means everything. The Wolves arguably could have won game 2 and they will be ready for game 3. The Wolves have had good moments, but they have not been consistent. That changes in front of the home crowd. The Timberwolves have never won a series after falling into an 0-2 hole, although they have won Game 3 three times in five previous tries. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 day’s rest and they win tonight.
Game 3 Pick: Wolves +2.5
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Day 5 Round 1
A bad beat in the late game left us with a 1-2 record on the night, but there are more opportunities on the slate for Wednesday night.
Philadelphia Sixers vs Brooklyn Nets
In the NBA playoffs, the change of venue can mean everything. In this series, the oddsmakers believe that it will make a big difference. The point spread dropped four points with Philly heading to Brooklyn. Up to this point, there is no reason to believe that the Nets have any chance of winning a game. Joel Embiid is dominating and the Sixers have a huge rebounding edge in the series. However, Spencer Dinwiddie will shoot better at home (he is 10-for-26 in the series and 13-for-47 over his past four games) and the Nets will get more calls from the referees. Don’t bet on this game until the tip, so you can get a better spread.
Game 3 Pick: Nets +5
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Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors
The talk surrounding game three in this series is the suspension of Draymond Green. However, the discussion should be about the KIngs. The Kings are the better team and they are playing well. The Warriors may be one of the best teams at home in the league, but they are not playing as a cohesive unit. The Kings are 34-16-1 ATS on the road and that includes an 8-2 ATS record against teams with a winning record. The pressure is on Golden State, not the Kings. The Kings have won two games despite the fact that the Warriors had the better shooting percentage. The Kings are the play tonight.
Game 3 Pick: Kings +6
Phoenix Suns vs LA Clippers
The Clippers stole a win in Phoenix, but the Suns evened the series before hitting the road. Now the Clippers will try to defend home court, but it won’t be easy. Chris Paul is hurting for game three and he may not play. However, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant will be up to the task. The Suns have covered the last five out of six games in LA and the Clippers are just 4-11 ATS with one day rest between games. The Suns get it done in a big way with a double-digit win over the Clippers.
Game 3 Pick: Suns -3.5
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Day 4 Round 1
Another winning night of picks, but things will get difficult this evening as all of the games have injury concerns that can change everything.
LA Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies
If Ja Morant does not play for Memphis this is a completely different game. Memphis does have a winning record with Morant out of the lineup, but this is the playoffs. The intensity of the game and the matchups are much different. The Lakers already had an edge in the front court due to injuries and if Morant does not play the Lakers will dominate. Actually, it won’t matter if Morant does play because he will not be healthy. The Lakers want to make this a short series. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in the last six and slumping into this game. LeBron wants that extra rest and they get a win in game 2 heading back to LA.
Game 2 Pick: LA -1
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks
This is another game highlighted by injuries. The Heat will have to play without Tyler Herro. This will put pressure on Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler in the post if the Heat cannot get outside shots to fall. The Bucks are also dealing with injury, most notably to Giannis who did not finish game one. His x-rays were negative and he is expected to play in this game. The Heat shot nearly 60 percent in the first game, a number they will not be able to duplicate. The Heat are also 7-27-1 ATS after a ATS win an ugly number to pay attention to. The Bucks shook off the rust in game one and they will be ready for game two.
Game 2 Pick: Bucks -6.5
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
We wrongly predicted a close game the last time that these teams met. The T-wolves were inconsistent and the Nuggets took full advantage, cruising to victory. Minnesota shot 37 percent overall, hit just 30.6 percent of their 3-pointers, and missed seven of their 16 foul shots. Those numbers will increase in game two. The Wolves are 28-8 ATS in Denver and 5-2 ATS on the road. Look for an inspired effort by Minnesota as they keep this game close.
Game 2 Pick: Minnesota +8
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Day 4 Round 1
After a rousing 2-0 ATS on Monday, it is time to shift the focus to the game on the Tuesday night schedule.
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics crushed the Atlanta Hawks in game one of the series and it is clear that the Celtics are the better team. However, they will have to cover double-digits tonight if they hope to cover the number. The Celtics played soft in the second half after building a big lead at the half. Although Boston will be ready for game two, it is hard to focus on a team that was so easily beaten the first time out. The Hawks are 6-2 ATS following a loss by at least ten points and this game will be closer and the Hawks have a chance at the upset. Don’t risk it, take the points.
Game 2 pick: Hawks +10.5
New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart needed a big game in the series opener to get the win for the Knicks. That will be hard to duplicate in Cleveland tonight. Hart is dealing with an injury and will not be at 100 percent if he suits up. The Knicks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Conference Quarterfinals games and although they have a healthy Julius Randle in the lineup, he showed signs of fatigue after sitting out with an injury. The Cavs even up the series with a big win in game 2.
Game 2 pick: Cavs -5.5
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LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns
The Clippers pulled off the biggest upset of the playoffs thus far and will be looking to win both games in Phoenix, but that will be easier said than done. The Clippers will still be without Paul George and will be hard-pressed to shoot as well as they did in the opener. Kawhi Leonard is still one of the best players in the league, but he will not be able to do it alone. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS after a win against the spread. Ignore all the noise about Scott Foster working this game, Kevin Durant will lead the Suns to a double-digit win and Phoenix will even up the series with a resounding win.
Game 2 pick: Suns -8
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Day 3 Round 1
Only two games on Monday but they both provide plenty of opportunities to bet.
Brooklyn Nets vs Philadelphia Sixers
The Nets are clearly outclassed in this series. The first game in this series was not even close and there is little reason to believe that will change in game two. Despite the dominating performance in the first game, the Sixers are a -10 point favorite, just one point more than in game one. The Nets are 1-4 against the spread in the last five meetings ad an awful 2-6 ATS in the last eight games against a team with a winning record. The Zig-Zag theory is a good way to approach betting in the NBA playoffs, but not in this game. Joel Embiid put up a big game with double coverage and if the Nets change things up with single coverage he will score 50. The Sixers are 25-12 ATS at home and they win big again.
Game 2 Pick: Sixers -10
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Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings
The Golden State Warriors lost game one, but they had a chance to tie it up at the buzzer. The Kings had to play their best game to get the win and therefore, everyone assumes that game two will belong to Steph Curry and the Warriors. But don’t overlook how poorly the Warriors play on the road. The Warriors are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games and 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 road games against a team with a winning home record. This is not a number that should be overlooked. Domantas Saboni struggled in game one, but he will be the main factor tonight getting extra shots and opening space on the floor for the King’s shooters. Expect another close game, but in the end, the Kings win again.
Game 2 Pick: Kings +1.5
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Day 2 Round 1
LA Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
The Lakers had to make a late-season push and survive the play-in round to get this showdown with the Grizzlies. Luckily for LeBron and the Lakers, the Grizzlies are hurting heading into game one. Memphis will be without Steven Adams and this will give Memphis a thin frontcourt against the bigger Lakers. The Grizzlies may have extra rest but they are 7-19-1 ATS playing with more than 3 days’ rest. The Lakers make a statement in game one, of what will be a great series.
Game 1 Pick: Lakers +4
Series Pick: Lakers in 6 games +425
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are the better team and they have more depth than Miami, but don’t count out the Heat. Jimmy Butler is good for a few great games and the Heat have the better coach. The Heat are 4-1 ATS playing with one day of rest and they may not win the first game of the series, but they will keep it close. Giannis and the Bucks have not played a game in 12 days. That rust will make for a slow start and a cover by the Heat.
Game 1 Pick: Heat +9.5
Series Pick: Bucks in 6 +390
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LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns
The Clippers are a good basketball team, but they have a tough matchup in the first round. The series against the Suns will be more difficult without Paul George in the lineup. Kevin Durant is a perfect 8-0 in the games that he has played with Phoenix and he is averaging 26 points per game. The chemistry is set in Phoenix and they will win and cover game 1 against a Clippers team that is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
Game 1 Pick: Suns -7.5
Series Pick: Suns in 6 +390
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the top seed in the West but they always seem to underwhelm in the playoffs. Minnesota is inconsistent but they have the talent to beat Denver on any given night. The T-pups will have a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns in the lineup, something they did not have in any game against Denver this year. Minnesota has dominated the Nuggets and is 24-7 ATS in the last 31 games in Denver and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games overall.
Game 1 Pick: Timberwolves +7.5
Series Pick: Nuggets in 7 +360
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Day 1 Round 1
Brooklyn Nets vs Philadelphia 76ers
The Nets are still a formidable team although they traded away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving this year, but they are no match for the Sizers. Philly has three players that average 20 points and will make quick work of Brooklyn. Joel Embiid is a mismatch for the Nets and he cannot be guarded by anyone on the roster. However, the Nets are an impressive 7-2 against the spread (ATS) on the road. Game 1 will be close, but the series belongs to Philly.
Game 1 pick: Nets +8.5
Series Pick: Sixers in 5 games +210
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics
The Celtics are well-rested and get a dream matchup against the Hawks. Boston’s strength is 3-point shooting and the Hawks struggle to guard the perimeter. Boston is one of the best defenses in the league at 115 points per 100 possessions and that pressure will amp up during playoff time. Last year the Celtics had to endure many long series which hurt them in the Finals. They will learn from that mistake and sweep Atlanta out of the playoffs. The Hawks are 20-42 ATS after a win, 0-4 ATS in the last four games in Boston and 2-6 ATS in the last 8 games overall.
Game 1 pick: Celtics -9.5
Series Pick: Celtics in 4 games +260
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New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
The best matchup of the first round is the series between the Cavs and the Knicks. Both teams are vastly improved and will put up a good fight. The Knicks may be without Julius Randle for a part of the series, which may hurt them. He is a big part of the offenses for the Knicks and will be missed if he is unable to play. The Cavs have injury concerns as well, but Donovan Mitchell is healthy and that is what matters for Cleveland. The young Cavs make a statement in game one, but this is going to be a long series.
Game 1 pick: Cavs -5.5
Series Pick: Knicks in 7 games +700
Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings
The Kings are the most underrated team in the NBA playoffs. Many believe that the Kings will be happy to make the playoffs since they have not been to the postseason in decades. Although the Warriors are defending champs, they are one of the worst road teams in the league. They are 16-34-1 ATS in the last 51 road games and the Kings have an excellent home-court advantage that is not often discussed. The Warriors are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings and take a loss in the series opener.