2020 NFL Picks for December 26: Betting Against Brady
It’s the best time of the year! Although Christmas is over, the full menu of college football bowl games and the NFL keep coming. The day after Christmas provides plenty of excitement with a triple-header with superstars and playoff implications. We are still giving out gifts in the form of three free NFL Picks for December 26. Also, make sure to check out of five best bets for NFL Sunday and Monday night here.
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2020 NFL Picks for December 26
Buccaneers vs Lions: Can Anyone Coach?
The Detroit Lions host Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they have a big problem. They will be missing coaches for this game due to COVID-19.
The Lions are currently down two head coaches, two coordinators and every primary defensive assistant. I have never really seen anything like this.
— kyle meinke (@kmeinke) December 23, 2020
This will be a test for the Lions coaching staff he needs to select a new head coach for this game and have several assistants in play-calling situations that they are not used to. This is perhaps why the spread jumped 2.5 points and the Buccaneers are now 10 point favorites at sportsbooks.
The Buccaneers need to win this game to clinch a p[layoff spot and over 74 percent of the money is coming in on Tampa Bay, but they are not the most popular bet of the day. The Lions are just 6-13 ATS as an underdog and it may easy to bet against them, but buyers beware.
The Bucs are just 0-4 ATS after a win and they are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Although many of those meets did include Tom Brady, the Bucs do not cover big spreads well and are 0-1 ATS this year when asked to cover nine points or more. The spread is moving too far and the value now lies with Detroit.
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49ers vs Cardinals: The 70 Percent Club
The Arizona Cardinals are favored by five points to beat the banged-up San Francisco 49ers. Over 70 percent of the public is on Arizona, in fact, all three favorites are getting at least 70 percent of the betting action from the public. The problem here however is that the Cardinals are not good home chalk. They did cover a week ago against Philadelphia, but overall they are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite. The 49ers are in a free fall covering just 1 of the last seven games and off an embarrassing loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
The most important number to know is turnovers. The 49ers are tied with the Broncos for the most in the league. They are an injury-riddled team and they do not protect the ball, two things that will hurt any football team. CJ Beathard will get the start for the 49ers and there is a slim chance he will have George Kittle back in the lineup. It won’t matter. The Cardinals need to win this game and the 49ers are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. San Francisco has no answer on defense for Kyler Murray and this explosive Cardinals offense.
Dolphins vs Raiders: Running with the Rookie
In the nightcap, the Miami Dolphins head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. The Dolphins are in the midst of an incredible season and they have been money at the betting window as well. The Dolphins lead the league with the best ATS record in football at 11-3.
The public has noticed and Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are the most popular bet of the day with 79 percent of the betting action. This has caused this spread to flip favorites. The Raiders were once -2 favorites and now the Dolphins are a full field goal favorite.
Derek Carr has been practicing despite suffering a groin injury and he is expected to start against Miami.
Derek Carr has no status. He’s good to go. https://t.co/5MZCq4NxAl
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 24, 2020
Although the Dolphins have a ferocious defense, the Raiders have only allowed 22 sacks on the season. This offense is underrated as the Raiders are also the second-best in the league at converting third downs with a 49 percent mark. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
In the last game of the night, the Raiders get upset with the win over the Dolphins.
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