2020 NFL Week 2 picks against the spread for every game
After week one of the NFL season, many fans were left stunned by some of the upsets. Teams that were expected to win easily like the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers failed miserably in their season debut. That shows just how unpredictable this sport can be. It’s never easy making picks against the spread as many of us found out in week one, but that won’t stop us from making NFL Week 2 picks against the spread for every game
Browns vs Bengals
Point spread: Browns -6
Point total: 45.5
Moneyline: Bengals +220, Browns -278
This is an interesting matchup for Thursday night football. Joe Burrow played admirably in week one and should have won his first game. Now he plays a desperate Cleveland Browns team that needs a win. With all of the betting angles and storylines, we have to give this game its own write-up. Read it here.
49ers vs Jets
Point spread: 49ers -6.5
Point total: 43.5
Moneyline: 49ers -286, Jets +230
Both of these teams put up disappointing first weeks. The 49ers fell asleep in the second half and the Jets never showed up at all. The 49ers will be eager to get into the win column, but they will have to do it without their best player.
There were no setbacks with Kittle’s knee, which was hyperextended Sunday. Said Shanahan: “If it was a normal person, we probably would have ruled him out earlier in the week.” #49ers will have 3 TEs active on Sunday: Ross Dwelley, Jordan Reed and rookie Charlie Woerner.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) September 18, 2020
This is the theme of this year for a 49ers team that is riddled with injuries. The offense is in shambles with missing key pieces to include Kittle, two of the top pass-catching targets, and injuries at the center position.
The 49ers play down to their competition at the betting window as they are 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last 5 games against a team with a losing record. The Jets, despite, the ugly loss last week have cashed 4 out of the last 5 games as underdogs. The overreaction against the Jets in this game gives us value by betting on the green team.
New York Jets +6.5
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Bills vs Dolphins
Point spread: Bills -4
Point total: 41.5
Moneyline: Bills -210, Dolphins +170
The Bills are riding high after an impressive win over the lifeless Jets in week one. The Dolphins did not show any offensive prowess against a Patriots team that continued to flex their domination in the division. The Bills are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests, Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests overall. Bills QB Josh Allen owns the Dolphins and has played his best against Miami.
Josh Allen plays the Dolphins this Sunday.
Here is a reminder of his stats against Miami:913 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INT, 61% comp, 102.8 QBR, 318 yards rushing, and 3 more TDs
— Kevin Massare (@KevinMassare) September 17, 2020
The problem with the above numbers is that is when the Dolphins were rebuilding. Now they are ready to go and will be able to provide more of a challenge for Allen. The Dolphins offense did not get a lot of time on the field, since the Patriots dominated time of possession with the running game.
The Bills will be without Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, making this team thin at linebacker. This will allow the Dolphins to have better offensive possessions. The Bills are good ATS on the road, but not against losing teams. The Bills are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog and they are the bet as a live divisional home underdog.
Miami Dolphins +6
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Lions vs Packers
Point spread: Packers -5.5
Point total: 46
Moneyline: Lions +195, Packers -240
What happened to the Lions? This team is getting some love from betting experts that believe they can win the division. Yet in week one, they blew a big lead and dropped the game-winning touchdown. They don’t have too much time to recoup in week two.
The Packers were doubted by nearly everyone. This team and Aaron Rodgers responded with a resounding win. That momentum will not stop when they open the season in Green Bay. The Packers are 30-20-0 ATS as a favorite and 26-15-1 ATS as a home team, making this team poised to win big.
The Lions will be without WR Kenny Golladay and the offense will not be able to match the intensity of Green Bay.
Green Bay Packers -6.5
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Vikings vs Colts
Point spread: Colts -3
Point total: 46.5
Moneyline: Vikings +135, Colts -165
Two teams meet in week two that started off the year with high expectations. But after this game, either the Vikings or the Colts will be 0-2. There may be no such thing as a “must-win” game this early in the year, but this is as close as it gets.
Since 2006, NFL teams coming off a Week 1 loss as favorites of -6 or higher are 23-11 against the spread in their Week 2 matchup. This is good news for the Colts who took perhaps the most embarrassing loss of the first week. Phillip Rivers and Co will now take on a Vikings secondary that looked clues in week one.
Indianapolis Colts -3
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Panthers vs Buccaneers
Point spread: Bucs -8
Point total: 48.5
Moneyline: Panthers +310, Bucs -400
All eyes are on Tom Brady and a limping Tampa Bay offense that has yet to get on the same page. It may be too early to panic but the critics are ready to pounce on this team. So are the Panthers. Although Carolina lost in the first game, they were competitive.
In the past, the Panthers have been profitable in Tampa cashing in on five of the last six games, but that is thrown out the window. Different personnel and different teams will make for an exciting game. The point spread is interesting to watch in this game. It opened at Bucs -7.5 and in some places went as high as -10, before settling in the -8.5-9 range.
It is hard to trust a Tampa Bay offense that is not in sync and Brady who is now throwing touchdowns to the other team. Tampa may win, but don’t expect a cover.
Carolina Panthers +9
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Rams vs Eagles
Point spread: Eagles -2.5
Point total: 48.5
Moneyline: Rams +128, Eagles -155
The Rams upset the Cowboys in week one and will set their sights on another team in the NFC East this week. The Eagles, devastated by injuries lost a big lead and took a big “L” against Washington in the season opener. But, this team has some good news on the injury front and things are looking up in week 2.
After missing last week vs Washington, both Eagles’ RB Miles Sanders and OT Lane Johnson are on track to play this week vs Los Angeles.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 16, 2020
The smart money jumped on Philadelphia. The Rams went from -3 point favorites to +1 underdog. This is not good news for anyone betting on the Rams since they are 5-12-1 ATS in the last 18 games as an underdog. This is smart money because the consensus shows that over 72 percent of the bets are on the Rams. The Eagles coaching staff will set up Carson Wentz to succeed with short passes and quick releases to take the pressure off. The Eagles will pull away in a hard-fought game. Only one sportsbook still have the Eagles as an underdog, get the points, and bet on Philadelphia.
Philadelphia Eagles +1
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Jaguars vs Titans
Point spread: Titans -10.5
Point total: 43
Moneyline: Jaguars +420, Titans -560
The Jaguars were expected to have a very bad season. Week 1 proves that this team is not giving up. They will be put to the test against one of the best teams in the NFL when they go up against Tennessee. The Titans had special teams issues in week one and have to get ready on a short week. The point spread plummeted almost three points leading up to the kickoff of this game.
If you expect the Jaguars to have a letdown after the big win in week one, thing again. Week 1 teams that won outright as underdogs of +6 or higher are 8-2-2 ATS in their Week 2 game over the past 14 seasons. The Jaguars are 17-7-3 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Titans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
After this game, Jacksonville will have some believers.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
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Falcons vs Cowboys
Point spread: Cowboys -7
Point total: 50.5
Moneyline: Falcons +250, Cowboys -315
The Cowboys are under pressure to win week two, but it won’t be easy. Both teams are expected to be contenders in the crowded NFC, but starting 0-2 will be a tough hole to climb out of. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games that they have played which is an indication of good coaching.
The Cowboys bandwagon is starting to empty out after losing in week one. The sports betting public likes to bet on the Falcons this week with 52 percent of the bets on Atlanta. The big money is also on this Dallas team since the point spread fell from -7.5 to -3.5.
One thing to consider is just how bad the Falcons defense played last week. The Falcons are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, which is a disturbing trend. The value lies with the Cowboys. The Falcons are 0-10-1 ATS since 2017 coming off a home game where they scored more points than expected.
The Falcons beat up a Seattle defense that is not as good as many people think. Although the Cowboys defense has had some injuries, they will rise to the occasion. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and they are the best bet to make.
Dallas Cowboys -3.5
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Broncos vs Steelers
Point spread: Steelers -6.5
Point total: 43
Moneyline: Broncos +240, Steelers -305
Big Ben is back and the Steelers are 1-0 after beating the Giants on Monday night football. The Broncos lost last week and the final score may be deceiving. If not for a special team melt-down the Broncos may have lost by double-digits.
The Broncos look improved, but they were lucky to cover in the first game. The Titans had many missed opportunities and Broncos QB Drew Lock was rated among one of the worst in the league in week one. The Broncos defense without Von Miller is very beatable and they gave up too many yards last week. The Broncos are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. James Conner is back in the lineup and the Steelers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight-up win. Pittsburgh crushes Denver.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
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Giants vs Bears
Point spread: Bears -5.5
Point total: 43
Moneyline: Giants +195, Bears -245
The Giant’s meltdown on Monday night is almost as spectacular and the comeback by the Bears against Detroit. The obvious problem in the Big Apple is the offensive line. Lack of protection and the inability to open up running lanes for Saquon Barkley is a big problem. This is a problem that may not get any better against the Bears defense.
The Giant’s young head coach will have the challenge to adjust his lineup for this game. The offense line is in trouble for Big Blue, which could allow this Bears defense to feast on the Giants offense. But the biggest story for this game, it has to be Mitch Trubisky!
Mitch has to be confident coming into this game, but that doesn’t make him a good quarterback. You may think a team will be riding a high after a comeback win, but this trend suggests otherwise. Teams off of at least a nine-point fourth-quarter comeback win who are home favorites the next game against a team off a loss are just 1-14-1 against the spread in the past 16 instances against that visiting club. The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and they have a point to prove this week.
New York Giants +5.5
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Ravens vs Texans
Point spread: Ravens -6.5
Point total: 53
Moneyline: Ravens -305, Texans +240
The Texans lost in week 1 to the Chiefs and it will not get any easier in week two against the Ravens. The Ravens dismantled the Browns and it looks as though they have not lost a step as they look to make it to the Super Bowl. The Texans would love to have fans at home, but it may not matter as they are 3-7 in their last seven home contests.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have gone 9-2, both straight-up and ATS in road games. To make matters worse Baltimore has won and covered in five straight road games. The Ravens are also 18-2 in the last 20 games, where they’ve been favored by six or more points cashing in with an 11-9 ATS record. There is only one team to play.
Baltimore Ravens -7
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Washington vs Cardinals
Point spread: Cardinals -6.5
Point total: 45.5
Moneyline: Washington +240, Cardinals -305
Washington stunned in week one with a huge comeback victory against the Eagles. Coaching is important when picking winners and Ron Rivera has established a winning attitude in Washington. Arizona pulled off an equally impressive upset over San Francisco in week one and proved that trading for DeAndre Hopkins was a genius move.
The Washington football team may end up having one of the vest pass-rushing teams in the league. They had 17 sacks in the last five games a year ago and they are better this year. HC Ron Rivera knows how to get his team hyped up when they are underdogs. They won last week as an underdog and Rivera is 19-12 in his last 31 games. Bet on Washington again.
Washington Football Team +6.5
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Chiefs vs Chargers
Point spread: Chiefs -7.5
Point total: 50.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -345, Chargers +270
Kansas City is one of the best teams in the league and now they have extra time to prepare for the first road game of the season. The Chargers squeaked out a victory in week one, but they did not look impressive, especially on offense where they lacked the inability to complete drives and find consistency.
If you are looking for an upset, this is the game. Every trend and stat points to Kansas City and the public is piling on. What could go wrong? The Bolts are 7-3-2 ATS as an underdog and although it was an ugly win last week they did get the job done. They have a (+2) turnover ratio which is another number that went unnoticed in the victory. The defense will make the Chiefs use long drives to score and the Chargers will use play-action to get the edge in this game. When you bet on this game, take the points, but they have a chance to stun the Chiefs.
LA Chargers +8.5
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Patriots vs Seahawks
Point spread: Seahawks -4
Point total: 44
Moneyline: Patriots +160, Seahawks -200
Quarterback Cam Newton excelled in his debut for the Patriots, claiming victory over the Dolphins. It is clear that the coaching staff has implemented an offense that is fitting of a mobile signal-caller. The Seahawks dominated in Atlanta and returns home to continue their winning ways. Read the complete preview with the pick against the spread, HERE.
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Saints vs Raiders
Point spread: Saints -5.5
Point total: 50.5
Moneyline: Saints -235, Raiders +190.
After dismantling the Buccaneers in week one, the battered and bruised Saints head to Las Vegas to battle the Raiders. Although the Raiders will not have a strong fan base, it will be great to see this massive stadium unveiled under the Monday night lights. This game is getting some serious attention at the betting window, so it is very important you know all of the facts. Monday night football preview, betting breakdown, and pick against the spread can be found here.