Super Bowl LV Trends to Track (and ignore)
The biggest game in the NFL is always fun to handicap. From the odds to the free picks and predictions along with the prop bets, it’s always interesting trying to make money on the Super Bowl. With the Kansas City Chiefs matching up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this game is even more enticing. Many handicappers will turn to sports betting trends to try and reveal a winner. That can be a problem if you do not know what Super Bowl LV trends to track and ignore.
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Super Bowl LV Trends to Track
There are hundreds of Super Bowl trends to track, but only a few of them are actually useful. Finding those trends and applying those trends in the handicapping process can be very useful. There are no trends that are 100 percent so tread carefully when using trends.
- The Chiefs enter 8-10 ATS on the season, the fifth team to advance to the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (only the 2012 Ravens went on to win). This trend is important because it shows a clear pattern. Teams that do not cover often fall flat in the Super Bowl.
- The favored team is 35-19 straight up in the 54 Super Bowls. This is plain and simple, the better team usually wins the big game. Although it is contradictory to the first trend, it is worth noting if you plan on making a money line bet on the Super Bowl.
- Andy Reid is 17-11 against the spread (ATS) when he has extra time to prepare for a game. This includes both regular season and postseason games. This is a good one, because coaching matters. With enough time to prepare, Reid is tough to stop.
- If the total is 49.5 or less, the over is 5-1. But if the total is 50.5 or higher, the under is 3-1. This may be significant this year because, with two great quarterbacks, this line is inflated. The public like scoring points and rooting for points, so this is an interesting angle to track.
Super Bowl LV Trends to Ignore
Just like they are hundreds of useful trends to track there are also many that should be flat out ignored. Just because it is a trend does not mean that it should be a part of your handicapping process.
- The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. This can be a bit misleading. This more coincidence than anything else. The correlation between passing for over 250 yards and not covering the next game is difficult to decipher.
- AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls. This means nothing because the matchups and teams were different each year.
- The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. This is before Tom Brady and these games and this trend is not relevant.
- Tampa Bay won outright the past 4 times as playoff underdogs, including twice already this season and once at Super Bowl 37. The two wins this season may be noteworthy, but the other two are not.
NFL betting trends are fun to track. They are also good sup[port pillars for making picks in the NFL. However, they should not be used as a standalone reason to make a wager. With enough research, you may just find that you never needed them at all.